New Delhi | While the peak summer heat may have subsided for most by October, its effects continue to linger in the fields, where unusually high temperatures are stunting fruit growth, hampering vegetable germination and disrupting crop cycles, leaving farmers facing losses even as the season should be turning cooler.
The problem arises amid broader concerns over the preparedness of agricultural systems for extreme weather, as multiple experts have warned that the ability to forecast climate events does not always translate into effective action on the ground.
They flagged that the challenge is compounded by a shortfall in international climate finance, with the UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) Adaptation Gap Report 2025 flagging that developing countries received just USD 26 billion in adaptation finance in 2023, the last year for which reliable data is available.
According to India's first Adaptation Communication to the UN Climate Change Summit in 2023 (COP28), the country alone estimated a cumulative need for expenditure for adaptation of Rs 56.68 trillion by 2030.
Adaptation finance refers to the funds spent to help communities prepare for and survive the unavoidable impacts of climate change.
"In my decade-long experience in agriculture, I have never witnessed this kind of climate before," Sambi Reddy Vuyyuru, a 54-year-old farmer in Andhra Pradesh's Guntur region, who is associated with the Farmer Producer Organisation (FPO), told PTI Videos.
He said that banana growth and yield had fallen by nearly 50 per cent, with fruits remaining much smaller than before and farmers harvesting only four to five bunches instead of the usual six or seven. He added that the crop, which typically grows faster and produces bigger fruits from October, was being affected by unseasonably high temperatures.
Vuyyuru also flagged poor germination in vegetables and severe pest attacks as additional concerns, with okra, leafy vegetables and creepers such as bottle gourd, snake gourd, bitter gourd and ridge gourd among the affected crops.
He said that the problem has persisted for two to three months, with seeds failing to sprout and pest attacks causing even greater damage than the losses in banana cultivation.
While advances in climate forecasting have made it possible for farmers to identify major weather phenomena in advance, the extent to which such warnings translate into timely action remains a challenge.
According to Ben Churchill, Director of the regional office for Asia and the Pacific at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the super El Nino in 2026 is unprecedented and the strongest recorded in 40 years.
"We have known for several months that El Nino is happening. This is the strength of the WMO and its partners: analysing data on the warming Pacific Ocean to detect the phenomenon very early. Our 12 global data centres have confirmed that this super El Nino is off the charts and unprecedented, the strongest we have seen in 40 years," Churchill told PTI.
"From past, less intense El Ninos, we understand what the impacts are and where they will occur. But we are already seeing more extremes," he added.
When asked whether India was prepared for further agricultural shocks after experiencing severe heat-induced losses in 2021-22, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Roxy Mathew Koll noted that large stocks and high production of rice and wheat may offer some buffer, particularly for large-scale farmers, but pulses, oilseeds and vegetables remain vulnerable to the impacts.
"This year, June started with a 40 per cent rainfall deficit, and farming was delayed across the country, which means production may also come down. However, the impacts hit hardest the most vulnerable, such as small-scale farmers who do not have irrigation or the means to change their seeds immediately when the monsoon is delayed," Koll told PTI, warning that the effects will creep into the next seasons.
Saransh Bajpai, Associate Programme Director of the Climate, Economics and Finance Program at WRI India, highlighted that the Agriculture Ministry has lowered its foodgrain production estimate by 2.63 million tonnes for the current financial year.
"The government is working with states and asking them to work with farming communities to switch to less water-intensive crops like pulses and oilseeds, particularly in rain-fed areas facing drought-like conditions in states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra and Telangana," Bajpai told PTI.
"Districts have also been asked to prepare cropping plans based on water-budget exercises carried out at the Panchayati Raj level in these rain-fed areas," he added.
While the government has expanded rural credit and insurance coverage and introduced technology-driven measures to build resilience, the funding remains domestically sourced from state budgets.
Bajpai said India's adaptation finance needs could rise to USD 854 billion as climate impacts intensify, while international adaptation finance to developing countries totalled just USD 26 billion in 2023. He stressed the need for greater grants and concessional finance, alongside mechanisms to mobilise private investment and improve access to funding.
"At COP29 (the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference), countries agreed to raise at least USD 300 billion annually in climate finance by 2035, while COP30 adopted a goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035. COP31 is expected to focus on food security, climate-resilient agriculture and sustainable agricultural policies, with finance central to implementation," he told PTI.
Bajpai stressed that the COP31 presidency has an opportunity to deliberate on the availability of adaptation finance for climate-resilient agriculture, ensure food security and secure a decent standard of living for the farming community.
Acknowledging the shortfall in climate finance, WMO's Ben Churchill said efforts to identify priority areas for investment and scale up funding offered a promising near-term prospect for bridging the gap.
Highlighting the need to prioritise extreme weather forecasting at the national level, he called for adequate support and resources for national meteorological and hydrological services, including greater investment in data-collection equipment to improve the accuracy of forecasts.
Churchill stressed that even the best science, tools, technology and forecasts would count for little unless they were translated into concrete action on the ground.
