New Delhi | The share of Hindus in total population of the country has decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015, while that of Muslims increased by 43.15 per cent, suggesting that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity, said a recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).
It, however, did not give absolute numbers. The last census in the country was done in 2011, and the one due in 2021 has not been conducted. It was also not clear how the EAC-PM arrived at the 2015 numbers.
The paper titled 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)' further said the share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 per cent in 1950 to 0.36 per cent in 2015.
"... The share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent). The share of the Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 per cent and increased to 14.09 per cent in 2015 -- a 43.15 per cent increase in their share," said the paper prepared by a team led by Shamika Ravi, member, EAC-PM.
According to the paper, the share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent -- an increase of 5.38 per cent between 1950 and 2015.
While the share of the Sikh population increased from 1.24 per cent in 1950 to 1.85 per cent in 2015 - a 6.58 per cent rise in their share, the share of the Parsi population in India witnessed a stark 85 per cent decline, reducing from 0.03 per cent share in 1950 to 0.004 per cent in 2015.
The data indicates that "there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society," the paper said, adding that it is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach.
The paper noted that a decrease in the share of the majority population and a consequent increase in the share of minorities suggests that the net result of all policy actions, political decisions and societal processes is to provide a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society.
The report pointed out that in keeping with the global trends of declining majority, India too has witnessed a reduction in the share of the majority religious denomination by 7.82 per cent.
"This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighbourhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan," the paper said.
The paper said it is not surprising, therefore, minority populations from across the neighbourhood come to India during times of duress.
It pointed out that all the Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except Maldives, where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 per cent.
In Bangladesh, there was an 18 per cent increase in the share of the majority religious group which is the largest such increase in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 per cent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 per cent increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
According to the report, among non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination.
The paper noted that the year 1950 is important as a baseline year for two major reasons.
This was around the time that the international human rights framework under the aegis of the newly created United Nations began to take shape with minority rights and state responsibility for the protection of minorities being mainstreamed in international law, the paper said.
The paper is a detailed cross-country descriptive analysis of the status of minorities around the world measured in terms of their changing share in a country’s population over 65 years between 1950 and 2015.
For the 167 countries analysed, the average value for the share of the majority religious denomination in the baseline year of 1950 is 75 per cent, while the mean of the distribution capturing the change in majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015 is (minus) 21.9.
The paper said that 21 out of the 40 countries that experienced extreme changes in population matrix are from Africa.
Furthermore, 35 high-income OECD countries witnessed an average 29 per cent decline in the share of the majority religion, which is significantly higher than the global average.
"This means that globally, the share of the majority religious denomination has gone down by approximately 22 per cent. In other words, on average the world has become more heterogeneous in the period under study," it concluded.
New Delhi | Population growth rates are not linked to religion and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among all religious groups is declining, with the highest decrease observed among Muslims, NGO Population Foundation of India has said amid a debate over the increase in the population of minorities in India.
According to a recent working paper compiled by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), the share of the Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 in India, while that of Muslims increased by 43.15 per cent, suggesting that there is a conducive environment in the country to foster diversity.
The study led to a slugfest among political parties, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alleging that the "appeasement politics" of the Congress led to the increase in the population of Muslims in the country.
In a statement, the Population Foundation of India said it is deeply concerned about recent media reports "misreporting" the findings from the study to spread alarm regarding the growth of the Muslim population in the country.
"The study's focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community," it said.
According to census figures, the decadal growth rate for Muslims has been declining over the past three decades.
Specifically, the decadal growth rate for Muslims decreased from 32.9 per cent in 1981-1991 to 24.6 per cent in 2001-2011.
"This decline is more pronounced than that of Hindus, whose growth rate fell from 22.7 to 16.8 per cent over the same period," the NGO said.
The census data is available from 1951 to 2011 and is quite similar to the data in this study, indicating that these numbers are not new, the organisation said.
Noting that the TFR among all religious groups is declining, it said the highest decrease in the TFR from 2005-06 to 2019-21 was observed among Muslims, which dropped by 1 percentage point, followed by Hindus at 0.7 percentage point.
"This trend underscores that the fertility rates are converging across different religious communities," it said.
The NGO, which promotes and advocates for the effective formulation and implementation of gender-sensitive population, health and development strategies and policies, said such interpretations are not only inaccurate but also misleading and baseless.
"The media's selective portrayal of data to highlight the increase in the Muslim population is an example of misrepresentation that ignores broader demographic trends," said Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India.
Fertility rates are closely linked to education and income levels, not religion, she added.
"States with better access to education, healthcare and socio-economic development, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, exhibit lower TFRs across all religious groups. For example, the TFR among Muslim women in Kerala is lower than the TFR among Hindu women in Bihar," the NGO said.
Successful family planning programmes in Muslim-majority countries like Bangladesh and Indonesia have resulted in lower birth rates compared to India. These countries have achieved this through higher levels of female education, greater employment opportunities and better access to contraceptive choices. This clearly shows that fertility decline is influenced by development factors rather than religious affiliation, Population Foundation of India added.
"The most effective way to manage population growth is through investment in education, economic development and gender equity. Our analysis indicates that women's education is the most critical factor in reducing fertility rates. Therefore, interventions should focus on providing education and family planning services irrespective of religion," Muttreja said.
There are several population issues the world is grappling with.
"Population Foundation of India urges the media to refrain from using demographic studies to create fear and division. It is essential to present data accurately and contextually, highlighting the role of education, income and socio-economic development in shaping demographic trends. We advocate for policies that promote inclusive development and gender equity to ensure a balanced and harmonious society," the NGO said.
