# Ajayan | Kerala has of late found itself grappling with unique meteorological phenomena – a classic case it the convergence of the retreating southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon this time. In a similar twist, the State experienced a peculiar weather pattern marked by the supposed withdrawal of a deficient northeast monsoon, only to face relentless rain with the onset of winter.
This unusual sequence culminated in three days of torrential downpours in December, amounting to 93.9 mm of rainfall - an astronomical excess of 1,492 per cent compared to the expected 5.9 mm. This deluge effectively erased the seasonal deficit and signaled the conclusion of the northeast monsoon in dramatic fashion. From October 1 to December 3, Kerala recorded a cumulative rainfall of 449.8 mm against the seasonal norm of 465.5 mm, reflecting a marginal deviation of -3 mm.
This underlines the erratic yet impactful nature of Kerala’s monsoonal patterns, where even a brief spell of extreme weather can recalibrate an entire season's statistical narrative.
While Cyclone Fengal has been labeled the immediate culprit behind the devastating downpours and widespread flooding across South India, climatologists point to a far more insidious antagonist—global warming. This enduring threat has entrenched itself as a driver of increasingly erratic and extreme weather patterns, reshaping what was once predictable into a volatile "new normal". Interestingly, weather forecasts predict that the impact of Cyclone Fengal is likely to shift towards the Arabian Sea, signaling a new phase in its path.
A clear indication of global warming emerges from the characteristics of Cyclone Fengal, which, while not classified as severe by climatological standards, still unleashed unprecedented rainfall. Experts highlight that a mere 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature increases the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture by approximately 8 per cent. This warming effect has led to a significant rise in water content within clouds, estimated to be 10-15 per cent higher in this instance.
Previously common shallow clouds during this season have given way to convective clouds with substantial vertical development, resulting in torrential downpours. This phenomenon underscores the influence of global warming on altering weather patterns. Compounding the crisis, inadequate drainage systems, unprepared for these shifting climatic realities, have exacerbated the suffering of affected communities.
Cyclonic systems originating in the Bay of Bengal during this season typically have minimal impact on Kerala. This is primarily because, upon making landfall, such systems tend to weaken significantly due to friction with terrestrial surfaces. Additionally, the primary energy source driving these systems - latent heat released during water condensation - diminishes once the system moves over land. For every 1 gm of water that condenses, approximately 640 calories of heat gets released, fueling cloud formation. However, this energy supply is curtailed as the system loses access to the abundant moisture provided by the sea, leading to its gradual dissipation.
As these shifting weather patterns become the new normal, the urgency to implement effective measures grows paramount. Climatologists warn that failure to address these challenges proactively could lead to increasingly catastrophic consequences. Comprehensive strategies, including enhanced disaster preparedness, improved infrastructure for drainage and water management and robust climate adaptation policies, are essential to mitigate the impact of such unpredictable and extreme weather events, they add.
