LS polls: Triangular contest evident in several LS seats, BJP pushing hard to end electoral drought

In Kerala's political landscape, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) have long dominated, shaping the state's governance for decades.
Lok Sabha poll - Kerala
Lok Sabha poll - Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram | In Kerala's political landscape, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) have long dominated, shaping the state's governance for decades.

However, the ascent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), particularly under Narendra Modi's leadership, presents a formidable challenge to these established alliances in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

A shift towards a triangular contest is evident in several Lok Sabha constituencies, signaling a departure from the traditional two-party dominance.

The parliamentary elections will be held in Kerala on April 26.

SWOT analysis of parties in Kerala.

Congress-led UDF


-Strong traditional support base of minorities who constitute nearly 50 percent of Kerala's population.

-Presence of Rahul Gandhi in the Wayanad seat has been a source of strength for the UDF since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Riding on the "Rahul wave" among other factors, it won 19 out of 20 seats in the 2019 polls..

-Strong protests led by the UDF against the alleged misrule of the CPI(M)-led Left government in Kerala and the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre have helped them energize their cadres for the polls.

-Massive victory of the Congress candidates in the by-polls held for the Puthuppally and Thrikkakara Assembly seats.


-Lack of adequate women representation in the Lok Sabha seats. The UDF has fielded only one woman in the upcoming polls.

-Defection of local Congress leaders to the BJP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.

-Congress's refusal to give a greater role to charismatic leaders like Shashi Tharoor in state politics.

-Lack of unity among top leaders in the state Congress.


-Anti-incumbency factor against the Left government which has been in power in the state since 2016.

-Perception in the minds of a strong section of minorities that only the Congress can challenge a surging BJP at the national level.

-The Centre and State Government's alleged inaction in preventing the increasing incidents of human-animal conflicts.


-Failure in preventing its traditional upper caste Hindu vote base from shifting towards the BJP.

-Failure in making inroads in the numerically strong backward Hindu sections.

-Differences between leaders of minority Christian and Muslim communities on certain issues.

-Increasing presence of the BJP in its certain traditional strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, and Pathanamthitta.

CPI(M)-led LDF


-Strong local leadership in the form of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

-Strong cadre base of the Left parties, especially among the youth.

-Success in reaching out to minorities, particularly Muslims.

-LDF has been in power in the state for more than seven years.


-Lack of strong young candidates in various Lok Sabha constituencies.

-Alleged involvement of CPI(M)'s student outfit in campus violence.

-Discontent among those dependent upon social security pensions and other welfare schemes that have been affected due to the financial crisis in the state.

-Corruption allegations against the CM and his family.


-UDF losing trust of minorities in due to defections from the Congress to the BJP.

-Notification of the CAA rules.

-Strong political and legal fights against the Centre's alleged neglect toward the state on financial matters.


-PM Modi's repeated visits, giving an edge to the BJP.

-Anti-incumbency against the ruling party in the state.

-Alleged irregularities in the cooperative sector and related ED probes.

-Discontent among farmers over various issues, including wild animal attacks and delayed payments for paddy procured from them.



-Strong leadership of Narendra Modi and the developmental works done by his government in Kerala.

-Candidatures of two union ministers, actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi, and three women in the Lok Sabha polls.

-Decision to ban the Islamist outfit Popular Front of India (PFI).

-Defection of local Congress leaders to the BJP.


-Lack of trust of minorities towards the BJP.

-Absence of strong state-level leadership.

-Poor performance in the 2021 Assembly polls and by-polls held for local bodies.

-Failure in resisting the anti-Modi campaign unleashed by both the LDF and the UDF.


-Interest shown by youngsters towards certain programs of the Modi government like skilling.

-Effective diplomatic intervention of the Modi government to rescue Indians trapped in conflict-hit zones like Ukraine.

-Alleged appeasement politics of the UDF and LDF in the state.

-Interest shown by a minor section of Christians towards the BJP in Central Kerala.


-Alleged neglect of the state by the Centre on financial matters.

-Resistance of minorities, particularly Muslims, to support the BJP.

-Manipur violence.

-Failure in getting strong local alliance partners.

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