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Kochi | With hardly a week before the end of the Malayalam month of Karkidakkam, known for heavy downpour, Kerala has been passing through a terribly hot spell with a rain deficiency of 39 per cent as on Monday. Climatologists attribute this to the EL Nino which, they claim, has almost been confirmed over the Pacific Ocean and is projected to extend to next spring. This is the El Nino after seven years, with the last one being in 2015-2016 when Kerala underwent a severe drought.
El Nino is a climate pattern where there is abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is known to suppress monsoon rainfall leading to droughts.
Normally, El Nino favours good post-monsoon (northeast) rains and scientists say this has been the pattern. However, they also point to 2016 when even the post-monsoon failed and there was severe drought in Kerala. They add that it would not mean that this could happen this year too.
The frequency of drought years is increasing over Kerala during recent decades, says a study by scientists at the Cochin University for Science and Technology
Though the southwest monsoon in 2015 was bad for Kerala, the annual water stress and severity of drought then did not scale up to the level of 2016. Like at the national level, Kerala’s summer monsoon rainfall was deficit in 2015. It received a deficit summer monsoon during 2016 when it was normal across the country. This points to a large heterogeneity in rainfall distribution and its inter-annual variability, attributed to climate change.
Data from the Indian Meteorology Department points to a sea surface temperature almost similar to the one corresponding to a dry summer monsoon over Kerala.
Kerala has so far received 867.9 mm of rain as against a normal of 1426.3 mm till date from June 1 which is seen as the onset of the southwest monsoon or summer rain.
Climatologists expect a next spell of rain by the third week of August and suggest that it may not be heavy enough to any way meet the deficiency. Almost all the dams in Kerala are just half filled, indicating that the things can improve only if there is a bountiful northeast monsoon.
Rising temperature has been a matter of concern across Kerala. It is abnormally hot as the heat index is above 40 degrees Celsius, causing much discomfort owing to high humidity. This is not the pattern since monsoon winds during this period generally give much relief despite Kerala being traditionally in the summer hemisphere. However, this time monsoon winds, crucial for rain, have been very weak.
The ultraviolet index value is almost similar to that in April-May value. With clear skies and surface UV index going up, resulting in higher solar flux reaching the surface, things are quite unpleasant.
