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Kochi | Incidents of devastation by short fiery spells of gusty wind and rain have started becoming a normal. A sudden highly localised summer shower and the ensuing wind may see trees uprooted, massive destruction of crops and rooftops blown off.
This was the case hardly two days ago in Thiruvanthapuram. Nearly two months ago at Kodakkara in Thrissur district, a three-minute-long sudden whirlwind saw trees uprooted, and destruction of over 1000 banana plants. It has been a regular occurrence in the area like many others in the State for quite some years now.
Such a phenomenon of mini-tornadoes suddenly sweeping across very small areas has come to stay, admit atmosphere scientists. Such mini-tornadoes happen when local winds begin to spin and form a funnel which is pushed to the ground. Its movement gathers dust materials and moves in a rotatory manner. Obstructions like trees, buildings and plantations that come in its path are uprooted and finally it gets dissipated.
It is a response to global warming and a localized realization, says Dr S Abhilash, senior scientist in atmospheric science in Cochin University of Science and Technology. Unlike monsoon winds that move in one direction, these minor whirlwinds, which have become common over the last few years, move in a rotatory manner and the damage caused is severe, though very localized.
He also pointed to the growing trend of very localized rainfall and cloudbursts. The accuracy in their predictability is 70-80 per cent. He explains that weather predictions are made a week to a day in advance. It is like a shooting range of short and long distances where tools used are different. Since there are proper predictions, what is needed is also proper education so that people can be well prepared, says Dr Abhilash.
He points to the case of the recent Mocha cyclone where predictions were made weeks in advance and there were exact forecasts as it advanced.
This has been the case with summer showers too as people have been reeling under sultry conditions. He says that giving leeway to climate change, humid conditions are felt more in urban areas owing to increased urbanization. This makes people feel that days are getting hotter. In fact, the highest temperature of 42 degrees was recorded in Palakkad in 2016.
In the wake of scientific forecast tools that make predictability near perfect, these warnings have to be used to prepare proper plans much in advance and mitigate the impact of disasters, says Dr Abhilash.
