MUMBAI: Kotak Securities Ltd (“Kotak Neo”) today released its Market Outlook 2026, projecting a bullish year for Indian equities and commodities. The brokerage firm forecasts the Nifty 50 index to reach 29,120 by December 2026, driven by strong earnings growth and domestic resilience, even as global markets face continued turbulence.
Key Highlights:
Nifty Targets: Base case target of 29,120 (Dec 2026); Bull case target of 32,032.
Top Sectors: BFSI, Technology, Healthcare, and Hospitality named as preferred picks for CY26.
Commodities: Gold and Silver expected to continue their rally as safe-haven assets.
Earnings Growth: Nifty profits projected to grow 17.6% in FY27 and 14.8% in FY28.
Equities: Optimism Driven by Earnings
Despite a 17% drawdown from September 2024 highs, the report notes that Indian markets demonstrated resilience, with the Nifty 50 rebounding to new all-time highs by the end of 2025. Domestic institutional investors were instrumental in cushioning the impact of persistent Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows.
"India remains a beacon of growth amid global turbulence," said Shripal Shah, MD & CEO, Kotak Securities. "Our outlook for equities is upbeat, driven by robust earnings projections and policy support... With rising participation from young investors, the market is set for deeper engagement and wealth creation."
The report highlights that large-cap stocks have recently led gains, while mid-caps and small-caps lagged. Sectorally, automobiles, banks, and metals outperformed, whereas IT and FMCG sectors remained weak.
Commodities: A Golden Run
The year 2025 was stellar for precious metals, with gold surging over 55% globally to cross $4,000/oz, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. In India, gold prices rose 60%, amplified by rupee depreciation.
For 2026, Kotak Securities expects:
Gold to retain its status as a top safe-haven asset.
Silver to benefit from structural supply deficits, following 100% gains in 2025.
Base Metals (Copper, Aluminium) to remain firm due to electrification demand.
Crude Oil to remain cautious after a 19% decline due to supply surpluses.
Untapped Market Potential
Shah also emphasized the immense potential for deepening market penetration. Citing recent SEBI survey findings, he noted that while 63% of households are aware of securities market products, only 9.5% actively invest. "Brokerage firms must lead the charge to make investing inclusive and accessible," Shah added.
