#AG Vallabhan

Bhopal | The BJP has suffered a major setback in the Karnataka elections. After Himachal, the defeat in Karnataka has forced the BJP to review its strategy for the assembly elections to be held in five states, including Madhya Pradesh.

In Karnataka, with a mediocre Chief Minister and sidelined senior leaders, BJP solely banked on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and on the robust nature of the party organisation to return to power in Karnataka, its only bastion in the south.

Now the question has arisen again whether to try Karnataka's formula in Madhya Pradesh or go towards Gujarat's model of victory.

Till the Karnataka election results, the BJP had two models to defeat anti-incumbency. The model that led to victory in Gujarat, where 40 per cent tickets were cut where the cabinet including the Chief Minister was changed. Second, the Karnataka model, where leaders' sons and relatives were given opportunities.

The Karnataka model was not liked by the people and the BJP had to face a crushing defeat. In such a situation, the formula to remove the displeasure of senior leaders by giving tickets to sons and daughters and relatives in Madhya Pradesh has gone sour. In such a situation, BJP will have to rework its strategy in Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP has suffered a major setback in the Karnataka elections. After Himachal, the defeat in Karnataka has forced the BJP to review its strategy for the assembly elections to be held in five states, including Madhya Pradesh.

Now the question has arisen again whether to try Karnataka's formula in Madhya Pradesh or go towards Gujarat's model of victory. In Gujarat last year, the BJP registered a big victory in the assembly elections by defeating the anti-incumbency wave. The BJP won 156 of the 182 assembly seats. The BJP changed all the ministers including the Chief Minister 15 months before the elections in Gujarat. New faces were given a chance. BJP is late for this model in Madhya Pradesh as a comprehensive change in the current situation is not possible now.

In the case of Karnataka, BJP has cut the tickets of ministers on the lines of Gujarat. In their place, tickets were given to relatives of ministers, MPs and MLAs. Contrary to the line of opposing familyism, tickets were distributed. Despite this, the BJP could not save the fort of Karnataka.

BJP will be in a fix now , after the Karnataka results, whether to turn to the Gujarat model or try the Karnataka model once again. When the faces changed in the Gujarat model, it helped in removing the displeasure of the public towards the ministers and legislators and contained the anti incumbency. Shivraj Singh Chouhan's image in Madhya Pradesh is that of a leader of the people. He is directly related to the public. In such a situation, BJP can adopt a mixed formula.

BJP has always been talking against familyism and do not favour giving tickets to the sons of leaders. A few months back, BJP National President JP Nadda had said in Bhopal that some decisions are such that we have to face defeat. As the elections approach, the BJP is making policies according to the electoral equations.

Siddharth Malaiya, son of Jayant Malaiya, former finance minister in the BJP government, who defeated the party in the by-election in Damoh, is now back in BJP. There are speculations that the party will give him a ticket from Damoh. In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP had given a ticket to Akash, son of Kailash Vijayvargiya. This time sons of many big leaders are contenders. However, it is now being said that local equations will get importance in the decision of tickets.

Sons or daughters of senior leaders in BJP who can carry forward the political legacy may get a chance. In this case , Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's son Kartikeya, Jyotiraditya Scindia's son Mahaaryaman, Narendra Singh Tomar's son Devendra Singh, Gopal Bhargava's son Abhishek, Dr. Narottam Mishra's son Sukarna, Kamal Patel's son Sudeep, Prabhat Jha's son Tusmul and Gauri Shankar Bisen's daughter Mausam are possible contenders for tickets in assembly election.

Fielding over 70 new faces in the May 10 Assembly elections in Karnataka, about 30 percent in the 224 member house , the ruling BJP had planned to overcome anti-incumbency in many pockets.