New Delhi | As global weather and climate agencies forecast strong El Nino conditions in the coming months, concerns have emerged about droughts and other extreme weather events across the world, including India, which stares at below-normal monsoon rainfall.

World Meteorological Organization's Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said last week in a statement that El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event.

"This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world," she added.

The forecast holds significance for India as it has already registered a rainfall deficit of about 40 per cent in June, with central India worst affected, recording a deficit of 50.4 per cent. The country saw the fifth-lowest (99.5 mm) rainfall in the month since 1901.

To make matters worse, in its monthly forecast on June 30, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that July is most likely to see 94 per cent of the long-period average rainfall (LPA) despite showers expected across the country in the first seven to 10 days of the month.

LPA refers to rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period -- typically 30 to 50 years. IMD uses the period between 1971 and 2020 to calculate the LPA.

So far in July, India has witnessed a large surplus of rainfall in the first eight days. The normal rainfall for this period is 65.1 mm; however, the country as a whole has seen 92.3 mm of rainfall.

This does not necessarily mean that the Sword of Damocles of a widening deficit has been lifted. In fact, with El Nino conditions expected to become stronger, the deficit could be exacerbated. The IMD has already listed El Nino as one of the key reasons behind below-normal rainfall in June.

El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.

El Nino, which leads to less monsoon rainfall in India, is known to have a warming effect over the planet. Its counter phase, La Nina, is typically responsible for a cooling effect. The third phase of the ENSO is a neutral phase.

Stronger El Nino conditions can spell disaster for India's peak sowing period, as more than half of India's kharif-cultivated area is entirely rain-fed.

According to the Agriculture Ministry data, sowing of kharif crops, including paddy, lagged significantly in the country. It said the total area under kharif sowing was 182.72 lakh hectares as of June -- down by 23 per cent compared to 236.46 lakh hectares a year earlier.

Rice, as well as pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals and cotton, saw lower sowing last month than in June 2025.

Speaking to PTI, Dr Vishwas Chitale, fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said, "The monsoon remains the backbone of India's agriculture, water security and rural economy. The concern (about deficit rainfall) is heightened by the IMD's revised seasonal forecast of 90 per cent of the LPA, indicating a below-normal monsoon season."

To tackle El Nino's impact on various sectors, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) on Tuesday held a review meeting and took stock of preparedness measures.

In a statement, the PMO said that during the meeting, the Union agriculture secretary made a detailed presentation on preparedness for the possible impact of El Nino during the kharif season.

"District Agriculture Contingency Plans have been updated for 262 vulnerable districts, and standard operating procedures (SoPs) for ‘Managing El Nino Risks in Indian Agriculture’ have been issued by the Indian Council for Agricultural Research for Krishi Vigyan Kendras in the districts," the statement added.

There are also concerns about above-normal temperatures due to the more potent El Nino conditions.

The IMD last month said that June was hotter than usual. The monthly average maximum temperature last month was 35.67 degrees Celsius, which is 1.06 degrees above normal, making it the 15th hottest June on record.

In its forecast for July, the weather department said that the maximum temperature is expected to be above normal in most parts of the country in July, except in isolated pockets of west-central India.

The minimum temperature too will be above normal in most parts of the country, barring pockets in central and north-east India.