Kolkata | North Bengal, with its 54 assembly seats, has once again emerged as one of the principal theatres of the West Bengal assembly polls, with the BJP striving to retain the region that powered its rise in the state, and the TMC seeking to reclaim lost ground amid shifting political equations.

Voting in all 54 seats will be held in the first phase on April 23. For the BJP, north Bengal remains the most viable route to offset the TMC's dominance in south Bengal. For the ruling party, a recovery here is essential if it is to blunt the saffron surge, and deny the opposition the momentum it needs.

The region presents a complex electoral mosaic where old loyalties are under strain and new fault lines are emerging.

The BJP, which turned north Bengal into its strongest bastion after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and consolidated that rise in the 2021 assembly election, is now battling anti-incumbency, local dissidence and unease over candidate selection.

The TMC, on the other hand, believes it has repaired its organisation, rebuilt bridges with social groups and regained some of the ground it had ceded.

That shifting contest plays out differently across the region's eight districts: Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur and Malda. From the hills and tea gardens to the Rajbanshi belt and the minority-dominated plains, each district is shaped by its own mix of identity, welfare, local grievances and political memory.

"North Bengal is no longer a one-wave region. The BJP still has a structural advantage, but the contest is much closer than it was in 2021," political analyst Subhomoy Maitra said.

The BJP had swept north Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, winning seven of the eight parliamentary seats, and consolidated that rise in 2021 by bagging 30 of the 54 assembly seats against the TMC's 24.

The saffron camp retained an edge in 2024, though it slipped from its 2019 peak, winning six of the eight Lok Sabha seats and leading in 31 assembly segments.

That electoral memory has made the region the focal point of an intense contest. The BJP has set itself a target of winning 48 of the 54 seats, banking on its hold over the Rajbanshi belt in Cooch Behar and Jalpaiguri, the tea gardens of the Dooars and Terai, and the hills of Darjeeling and Kalimpong.

The party has sharpened its campaign around regional neglect, promising an AIIMS, IIT, IIM and cancer hospital, besides land rights for tea garden workers and recognition for local languages.

Yet, beneath the BJP's confidence, there are signs of unease. The unresolved demand for Gorkhaland in the hills and the call for Kamtapur or Greater Cooch Behar in the plains continue to simmer. While local leaders occasionally invoke the idea of a Union Territory or separate state, the BJP's state leadership has stopped short of endorsing such demands, wary of a backlash in south Bengal.

The Kamtapur State Demand Council has backed the BJP, while in the hills the party is relying on the Bimal Gurung-led GJM. But, sections of Gorkha and Rajbanshi voters remain disillusioned over the absence of any "permanent political solution".

Sensing an opening after the BJP's marginal dip in 2024, the TMC has stepped up its campaign. Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee began her north Bengal push from Alipurduar and the adjoining tea belt, underlining the importance the party now attaches to the region.

The TMC is banking on women, minorities and beneficiaries of welfare schemes, while also trying to make inroads among tea garden workers and Rajbanshis. It has tied up with Anit Thapa's Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha in the hills, conceding Darjeeling, Kurseong and Kalimpong to the ally in a tactical move aimed at countering the BJP-GJM combine.

More significantly, both the BJP and the TMC believe the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls could alter the political arithmetic in several districts.

The revision has led to large-scale deletions – 2.42 lakh voters in Cooch Behar, 2.01 lakh in Jalpaiguri, 1.9 lakh in Darjeeling, 3.63 lakh in North Dinajpur, 4.59 lakh in Malda and 1.95 lakh in South Dinajpur.

The BJP believes the deletions may help it by reducing what it calls inflated rolls in minority-dominated Malda and North Dinajpur. The TMC and Congress, however, allege that genuine voters, especially minorities and migrant workers, have been struck off.

"The BJP is trying to win north Bengal through the back door after failing to fulfil its promises on the CAA, tea wages and Gorkhaland," TMC leader Gautam Deb said.

Union minister and Balurghat MP Sukanta Majumdar rejected the charge. "North Bengal has suffered neglect for decades. People want development and dignity. The mood here is in favour of change," he said.

The Congress, concentrating on Malda and the two Dinajpur districts, hopes the SIR controversy and minority consolidation will help it regain relevance.

"There is anger among voters whose names have disappeared from the rolls. The contest is more open than it appears," state Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said.

The region's political geography remains sharply divided. The BJP dominated Cooch Behar, Alipurduar and Darjeeling in 2021 and edged past the TMC in Jalpaiguri.

The TMC retained the upper hand in minority-dominated North Dinajpur and Malda, while South Dinajpur was evenly split.

The BJP is facing resentment over ticket distribution and the induction of defectors, while the TMC, too, is battling factionalism in parts of Jalpaiguri and Rajganj.

Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said the election in north Bengal was no longer being driven by a single issue.

"Identity, welfare and regional neglect are intersecting in a very complex way. The BJP still has an advantage, but the TMC has narrowed the gap. Much will depend on turnout, the impact of SIR and whether local grievances override broader narratives," he said.

If north Bengal once scripted the BJP's Bengal ascent, April 23 will show whether the story still has another chapter – or whether the TMC has finally found a way to rewrite it.