# Special Correspondent

Kerala’s June 1 date with the southwest monsoon has not happened and the wait continues for its landing. According to weather experts, the rain-bearing clouds are round the corner and as they enter the land, the Indian Meterological Department will announce its onset which could be in two days. There is the likelihood of a cyclonic circulation developing over southeast Arabian Sea on Monday. This can cause a formation of a Low Pressure Area over that region during the subsequent 48 hours.

Dr S. Abhilash, Director of CUSAT Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, says the pattern of isolated spells could go on for a couple of days, especially in the southern parts.  This could result in Kerala qualifying for the monsoon onset. However, it all depended on the vigour of these spells. Further progression depends on the system to be formed in the Arabian Sea, he adds.

Though different parts of Kerala received rain on Saturday, it was mostly in the ocean.

It is a short, seasonal, and long-term weather phenomenon over the Pacific to the poles that influence the monsoon. The onset over Kerala appears to be delayed due to superstorm Typhoon Mawar which is weakening over the Pacific, say scientists.

They feel Mawar was temporarily stalling the weather phenomenon Madden-Julian Oscillation from advancing to the Indian Ocean. This oscillation involves clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure that covers the tropics and returns to its starting point in 30 to 60 days. Its variations influence the monsoon onset over Kerala.

IMD had on May 26 issued its second stage forecast for the monsoon and had said there was no possibility of any cyclone formation in Arabian Sea.