Tokyo | Japan's governing party leader, Sanae Takaichi, is on track to become the country's first female prime minister, after finding a badly needed replacement for a crucial partner that left her Liberal Democratic Party's coalition.
Takaichi, 64, would replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tuesday's parliamentary vote. If she's successful, it would end Japan's three-month political vacuum and wrangling since the coalition's loss in the July parliamentary election.
The moderate centrist Komeito party split from the LDP after a 26-year-long coalition. The move by Komeito came days after Takaichi's election as president of her party, and it forced her into a desperate search for a replacement to secure votes so that she could become prime minister.
The Buddhist-backed Komeito left after raising concerns about her ultraconservative politics and the LDP's lax response to slush fund scandals that led to their consecutive election defeats and loss of majority in both houses.
While the leaders of the country's top three opposition parties failed to unite for a change of government, Takaichi went for a quick fix by teaming up with the most conservative of them: The Osaka-based Ishin no Kai, or Japan Innovation Party. But the long-term stability of their cooperation is an unknown.
The two parties are set to sign a coalition agreement on Monday.
An eventual Takaichi premiership would be on a cliff-edge. The fragile new coalition, still a minority, would need cooperation from other opposition groups to pass any legislation. It would be a risk that could lead to an unstable, short-lived leadership.
Big diplomatic tests come within days — talks with US President Donald Trump and regional summits. At home, she needs to quickly tackle rising prices and compile economic boosting measures to address the frustrated public.
Unpopular among women
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An admirer of former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi's breaking of the glass ceiling makes history in a country whose gender equality ranks poorly internationally.
But many women aren't celebrating, and some see her impending premiership as a setback.
“The prospect of a first female prime minister doesn't make me happy,” sociologist Chizuko Ueno posted on X. Ueno explained that Takaichi's leadership would elevate Japan's gender equality ranking, but “that doesn't mean Japanese politics becomes kinder to women.” Takaichi, an ultraconservative star of her male-dominated party, is among those who have stonewalled measures for women's advancement. Takaichi supports the imperial family's male-only succession, opposes same-sex marriage, and supports a revision to the civil law allowing separate last names for married couples, so women don't get pressured into abandoning theirs.
The prospect for a dual system for last names is fading under Takaichi, Ueno says.
“Ms. Takaichi's policies are extremely hawkish, and I doubt she would consider policies to recognize diversity,” said Chiyako Sato, a political commentator and senior writer for the Mainichi newspaper.
Rising prices and population decline
------------------------------------------ If she's successful in the parliamentary vote, Takaichi would immediately launch her Cabinet on Tuesday and make a policy speech later in the week.
A protege of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to emulate his economic and security policies. With a potentially weak grip on power, it's unknown how much Takaichi would be able to achieve.
She would have only a few days to prepare for diplomatic tests — major regional summits and talks with Trump in between. She has to reassure that there will be stable ties with China and South Korea, which are concerned about her revisionist views on wartime history and past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine.
The shrine honors Japan's 2.5 million war dead, including convicted war criminals. Victims of Japanese aggression, especially China and the Koreas, see visits to the shrine as a lack of remorse about Japan's wartime past.
Takaichi supports a stronger military, currently undergoing a five-year buildup with the annual defense budget being doubled to 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2027. Trump is expected to demand that Japan increase its military spending to the NATO targets of 5 per cent of GDP and purchase more US weapons.
Takaichi has to follow up on Japan's pledge of USD 550 billion to Trump's administration as part of a US tariff deal.
Her policies focus on short-term measures such as rising prices, salary increases, and subsidies, as well as restrictions against a growing foreign population amid a rise in xenophobia. Takaichi hasn't shown a vision for Japan to address bigger issues like demographic challenges.
Takaichi's dilemma
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Takaichi's mission is to regain conservative votes by pushing the party further to the right.
The LDP's new coalition with the right-wing JIP may fit Takaichi's views, but experts say that she would have to avoid pushing them and prioritize stability.
She needs to balance relations between China and the United States under Trump, while at home, she also needs to balance to gain support from the opposition camp to achieve anything.
“She needs to be realistic,” says Sato, the commentator.
On Friday, Takaichi sent a religious ornament instead of going to the Yasukuni Shrine, apparently to avoid a diplomatic dispute with Beijing and Seoul.
To consolidate opposition cooperation and lift her coalition closer to a majority, she has reached out to smaller opposition groups, including the far-right Sanseito.
“There is no room for Takaichi to show her true colors. All she can do is cooperate per policy,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University political science professor. “It's a pathetic situation.”
A kingmaker's influence
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Takaichi's election as LDP leader as she seeks the premiership is about power politics by the 85-year-old conservative former Prime Minister Taro Aso, the party's most powerful kingmaker.
In her first move as LDP president, Takaichi appointed Aso as the party's vice president and gave more top jobs to his allies and others who supported her, including Abe allies linked to the funds scandal. Takaichi is expected to appoint them to her Cabinet.
Political instability
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Political observers expect that a Takaichi government wouldn't last long. An early election may have to be called later this year, in hopes of regaining a majority in the lower house, though that would be tough.
Experts also raise concerns about how Takaichi, a fiscal expansionist, can coordinate economic policies with Ishin's fiscal conservative views.
“The era of LDP domination is over, and we are entering the era of multiparty politics. The question is how to form a coalition,” Sato said, noting a similar trend in Europe. “We need to find a Japanese way of forming a coalition and a stable government.” About a dozen opposition parties span the spectrum from the Japanese Communist Party on the left to Sanseito and several others on the extreme right.
“What's going on here right now is what's going on in all our democracies for a lot of complicated reasons,” said Gerald Curtis, a Columbia University professor and expert on Japanese politics, citing the mainstream political parties losing popularity and voters acting based on anger and resentment. (AP)