Istanbul | An Israeli strike on a meeting of Hamas officials in Qatar has cast a cloud of growing concern across Turkiye that it could be the next target.
Turkish Defence Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Israel and Turkiye were once strong regional partners, but ties between the countries ran into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the war in Gaza sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack in southern Israel.
Tensions also have risen as the two countries have competed for influence in neighbouring Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad's government last year.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian cause and of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The Turkish president has criticised Israel, and particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric since the start of the Gaza war, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officials regularly visit Turkiye and some have taken up residence there. Israel previously accused Turkiye of allowing Hamas to plan attacks from its territory, as well as carrying out recruitment and fundraising.
Erdogan is close to Qatar's leaders and Turkiye maintains strong military and commercial ties to the emirate. He is due to travel to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders' summit.
After Israel's attacks on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is bound to be concerned by Israel's ability to freely use the airspace of neighbouring states.
“Israel's ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defences and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” said Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Trends Research and Advisory's Turkiye programme.
Turkiye sees these attacks as a “broader Israeli strategy to establish a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states around it,” he added.
Turkiye has superior military might
In crossing a previously unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a close American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel also has raised the question of how far it will go in pursuing Hamas targets.
Through its NATO membership, Turkiye would seem to have a greater degree of protection against Israeli attack than that afforded to Qatar by its close ties to the United States.
Turkiye also boasts significantly greater military might than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in size only to the US among NATO countries and an advanced defence industry.
As tensions rise, Turkiye has boosted its defences. During Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in June, Erdogan announced an increase in missile production. Last month he formally inaugurated Turkiye's “Steel Dome” integrated air defence system, while projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member would be “extremely unlikely,” but small-scale bomb or gun attacks on potential Hamas targets in Turkiye by Israeli agents could be a distinct possibility.
Cubukcuoglu, meanwhile, said the Qatar attack could harden Ankara's support for Hamas.
“This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel may eventually extend such operations to Turkish territory,” he said. “The Turkish government calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional influence, while standing firm bolsters its role as a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression.”
Tensions could play out in Syria
While attention is focused on tensions surrounding the war in Gaza and Turkiye's relations with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned the greater danger may be in Syria, where he described Israel and Turkiye as being “on a collision course.”
“To think that targeting Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking,” he said.
Since Syrian rebels unseated Assad in December, rising tensions between Turkiye and Israel have played out there. Ankara has supported the new interim government and sought to expand its influence, including in the military sphere.
Israel views the new government with suspicion. It has seized a UN-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria, launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military facilities and positioned itself as the protector of the Druze religious minority against the primarily Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus.
Tensions also could spill into the wider eastern Mediterranean, with Israel potentially drawing closer to Greece and Greek Cypriots to challenge Turkey's military presence in northern Cyprus.
Turkiye mixes deterrence and diplomacy
Turkiye appears to be pursuing a mixture of military deterrence and diplomacy in Syria aimed at defusing tensions to avoid a direct conflict with Israel.
Turkish and Israeli officials held talks in April to establish a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria. The move followed Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Turkey had been purportedly planning to use. Netanyahu said at the time that Turkish bases in Syria would be a “danger to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus last month signed an agreement on Turkiye providing military training and advice to Syria's armed forces.
Erdogan also may hope Washington would take a hard line against any Israeli military incursions.
While Netanyahu has sought support from US President Donald Trump in the faceoff with Turkiye, Trump instead lavished praise on Erdogan for “taking over Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable” in his dealings with Turkiye.
But as the strike in Qatar showed, having strong relations with Washington is not necessarily a safeguard against Israel.
The Qatar attack showed there was “no limit to what the Israeli government can do,” Unluhisarcikli said.