VK Sanju

Concerns are growing in eastern European countries as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary chief, has arrived in Belarus after being deported, following a rebel movement in Russia. Interestingly, the Russian government allowed the Wagner Group leader to travel to Belarus without facing arrest. The glorified quotation band Wagner Group, under his leadership, has been disbanded.

The Russian authorities have put three options before the mercenaries who worked under the Wagner Group:

1. Join the Russian Army

2. Go to Belarus

3. Go back home and make a living by doing some other work

Since Prigozhin had a strained relationship with the Russian military leadership, it is evident that the ‘reception’ the Wagner Group members, who have a history of rebellion against the army, would get if they went with the first option would be challenging. The vast majority of those in the group are criminals and prisoners.

Many of them are likely to cross over to Belarus where their leader Prigozhin is. It is learnt that he has already started trying to reorganize the Wagner Group there.

Separately, the Belarus government is contemplating inviting the Wagner Group to collaborate with its armed forces. Belarus Defence Minister Viktor Khrennikov is learnt to have discussed the issue with President Alexander Lukashenko. It is learnt that the President has assigned Khrennikov with the responsibility of negotiating with Prigozhin the terms and conditions for such a deal.

Earlier, there were plans to formally integrate the Wagner Group into the Russian army as an acknowledgement of its active involvement in the war against Ukraine. However, as talks progressed, tensions between Prigozhin and the military leadership escalated, resulting in an attempted coup. In Belarus, Prigozhin is believed to be inclined to maintain his group as a separate division rather than merging it with the army.

That the Wagner Group could march into the Russian capital and depart to Belarus without facing any legal hurdles, despite roboust administrative and military systems in Russia, has left neighbouring Eastern European countries deeply shocked and concerned.

It is almost certain that Belarus, without any effective legal or administrative framework and enforcement of international treaties, will struggle to stop these groups from committing atrocities on the battlefield. This also raises concern about the potential for the group to engage in aggression and even seize power in neighbouring countries that lack significant military capacity on their own. Consequently, the responsibility of safeguarding entire Europe falls on the NATO military alliance, led by the US and also including European countries. With the exception of countries like Germany, France and the UK, none of the member countries has large-scale military capabilities.

Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda has in a strong warning spoken about the "great danger" the neighbouring countries faced if the Wagner Group's operatives were stationed in Belarus. This concern has great significance since Lithuania is to host the NATO summit on July 11 and 12. Poland President Andrzej Duda has expressed his intention to take up the issue and seek ways to tackle the threats posed by the Wagner Group. NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg affirmed the readiness of the alliance to respond to any potential threat.