Mumbai | RBI recently released minutes of MPC meeting held during June 3 to 5, 2026 . Using NLP we identified sentence-level references in member statements to analyse the language used by members in light of the current environment.
The June 2026 minutes are very high on uncertainty and caution. Using the sentence-level uncertainty/caution index we have constructed, June 2026 ranks highest in the all the MPC minutes since 2016 .
Inflation risk has risen, but uncertainty is too high for immediate action. Hold now, stay neutral, wait for clarity, and keep optionality open is the underlying message of the MPC minutes .Monsoon pose most uncertainty.
June’26 at 42% deficit (so far) is fifth driest month in 126 years…though positive IOD may provide some drizzle of hope .
Decline in Oil prices and rupee appreciation may provide some respite to imported inflation… this may keep CPI inflation under RBI’s target range.
RBI inflation expectation survey indicate cautiousness among Indian households regarding discretionary spending .
Taking all these factors under account. We believe that to talk about rate hike is unwarranted at this juncture. In uncertain times, a good central bank should be cautious about false precision, forceful against high-cost tail risks, systematic enough to preserve credibility, flexible enough to adapt, and transparent enough that uncertainty about the economy does not become uncertainty about the central bank itself.
The report has been authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.